Computer model of the ethnic and social processes.
We are create mathematical model of development
of ethnos and society. In the base of the model are lie the work's of Lev
N. Gumilev and T. Parsons (Lev N. Gumilev "Ethnogenesis and biosphere
of the World", T. Parsons "The Concept Of Society: the component
and it's interrelation.").
On the Gumilev's definition, the Ethnos is a company
of people. This company is stable, naturally established, opposing itself
to other similar communities that defined by sensation "complimentation"
(its-alien) and distinguish by original stereotype a behaviour. The base
of model is a notion of "passionarnost", incorporated Gumilev.
Men are subject to "passionar" impulse become a carrier of "passionar"
sign. That show in abilities of their organism to increased absorption
of biochemical energy from the environment and in the issue of this energy
in the manner of work. Such members an "population" are identified
"passionery".
The model of ethnos are consist of seven of subsystems:
"passionary", harmonious people, "subpassionary", organization,
science and technology, culture and art, landscape. For each of subsystems
is write differential equation of type
äP/ät = kP*P+kPM*M+kPS*S+kPO*O+kPT*T+kPC*C+kPL*L
, . . . ,
kP,kPm,... --- some coefficient (changeable),
but P,M,S,... --- subsystems of ethnos. Similar equations is write for
all subsystems. Then this differential equation system is solve numerically
and is got result of modeling in the manner of the graphics of changing
an "passionar" voltage of ethnos (on L.N.Gumilev, "passionar"
voltage is an average value of "passionarnost" by one member
of ethnos).
Received following result.
15KB(GIF-16c)
Graph
On this graph represent a curve of "passionar"
voltage. Horizontal axis is a changing of a time from 0 before 1500 years.
On Gumilev, length lifes of ethnos are form 1200--1500 years. On the graph
possible to select several phases of development of ethnos: 1 -- an ascent
0..200 years, 2 -- an "akmatich" phase 200..400 years, 3 -- a
crack 400..600 years, 4 -- an "inertian" phase 600..1000 years,
5 -- "obscuration" 1000..1500 years. Given result allows we declare
that our model of ethnos in some degrees answers the Gumilev's description.
Also written equations of sociogenesis on theories
T.Parsons and exist equations describing changing a biosphere (Krapivin
V.F., Svirijev U.M., Tarko A.M. "Mathematical modeling of global biosphere
processes."). Presently these equations base in the study. But in
general-that idea of these system modeling is conclude in that, to build
such system which included in itself four levels of Person: 1 -- a biosphere,
2 -- ethnosphere, 3 -- sociosphere and 4 -- psychosphere.